Forecast / ideation / Technology

Forecast Friday: Living Through More Change

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—it will be more like 20,000 years of progress. – Ray Kurzeil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns” (2001)

(I know it’s not Monday, but I’m going to Meander through this one, anyway.)

I’m 60. I talk about myself as being an old guy. I don’t feel old (heck, most of the time I don’t feel like an adult), but every time I’m asked for my date of birth I remember that I AM OLD. Of course, our label of what OLD means has changed over the years. It might very well be that I am now just middle-aged considering how our life-expectancy is. When I was growing up I think middle-age (and that legendary mid-life crisis) was in the mid-40’s. A generation or two ahead of me, a woman was an old maid if she wasn’t married by the time she was out of her teens. In far olden times, if they even had time to think about mid-life, it may have been closer to 20.

The point I’m trying to get to is that we (as a species) keep extending our lifespans, and as a result witness and experience more time and the changes that come with it. There’s no reason to believe that this trend won’t continue. I really don’t think there was any such thing as a midlife crisis until we could get into our 40’s, and could seriously think about changing our careers (because we lived long enough to have two of them.)

We also lived long enough to notice either that we or our spouse that we swore to stay with “until death do us part” have grown from who we were when we were married, and many people, not being able to handle that change, abandon their promises (folks – the real solution is to make sure to spend enough time with each other to grow TOGETHER, not APART.)

Change is hard to deal with, and at the same time, change is happening faster and faster – not with humans so much as with our technology. There are some interesting posits of this in a Wikipedia article on ACCELERATING CHANGE. Thinkers and writers such as Vernor Vinge, James Burke and Ray Kurzweil (and many others) have pushed the theory (or should we call it an observation) that technological advancement occurs at an exponential rate rather than linear. This means that change – and the IMPACT of that change on people – happens faster and faster. In the past, it may have been unusual for an individual to experience a single paradigm shift; now it’s likely you will live through multiples. How will we cope?

Some will refuse to accept the change. I’ve known people who grew up before electric dishwashers. They only owned one because it came with the house, but they never used it to wash the dishes – it was just an expensive drying rack. People like this will carve out their own little lower tech enclaves as the rest of tech and society passes them by.

Natural selection will probably start putting more of a premium on resilience – the ability to adapt to change will mark the truly successful, or the just plain survivors.

As always, you can’t stand still; it comes down to grow or die.

Just saying…


This is the release day (and thus the beginning of the release weekend) for Downtown Blues: Detective Jimmy Delaney Collection #2 , the 2nd set of 3 stories in the Detective Jimmy Delaney series:

“The Scent of the Crime” – Detective Jimmy Delaney finds himself involved in yet another murder. He knows something smells in Barnstow, but can he use that to find the killer?

“Killing Them Softly” – In a strange series of coincidences, young women start dying in Barnstow. Detective Jimmy Delaney doesn’t believe in coincidences – and he’s doubly suspicious when his irresistible nemesis Diana hires him to solve the murders. But can he stop the killer before they strike again?

“Hard Times” – Johns are dying in Barnstow. It was bound to happen eventually, in a city where legal prostitution is a big part of the tourist industry, but not so many so fast. And of course, if there are dead bodies in Barnstow, Detective Jimmy Delaney isn’t far away.

If you enjoy a little confused, crime-laden mayhem with a smattering of sci-fi and plenty of human frailty (and some redemption), Detective Jimmy Delaney is for you. Downtown Blues will be available at a reduced price throughout the weekend at various sellers, including, but not limited to:



AND the paperback is now available on Createspace:

JD1BrokenDownCover(And if you’re not caught up on Jimmy, you might want to also pick up the first three stories in Broken Down:  Detective Jimmy Delaney Collection #1 (contains “In a Flash”, “Mixed Signals”, and “The Right Idea”):




GoddessesCoverWilliam Mangieri’s writing, including his previous publication “Goddesses”,  can be found in many places, including:
• Smashwords:
• His Amazon Author page:
• Barnes & Noble:
• Createspace (if you prefer physical books):
• His site on WordPress:
• “William Mangieri’s Writing Page” on Facebook at:
• His Goodreads author page:
• Or on twitter: @WilliaMangieri


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